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03/08/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While there are several teams projected to make it to the NCAA Tournament, there's only one guaranteed bid that comes out of the massive 16-team beast that is the 31st annual Big East Conference Tournament.
Finishing as one of the top four teams in the standings means programs like Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Villanova all received double-byes in the event and won't see action until the quarterfinal round on Thursday. Coincidentally as of Sunday, all four of those teams were members of the AP Top-25, three of them in the top-10. Toss in second-tier Georgetown, which along with Notre Dame, Louisville, and Marquette all get a single bye into the second round of the tourney, as another nationally-ranked squad and there's no question this league could produce anywhere from five to eight teams worthy of NCAA Tournament consideration.
Top-seeded Syracuse (28-3, 15-3), a team that a few years ago came out of nowhere to capture this tournament title, lost a total of just three games all season long, although two of them were against Louisville (11-7, 20-11), so anything is possible. Opponents of the Orange need only to look back as far as the second exhibition game of 2009-10 to see that SU is vulnerable as it lost to little-known Le Moyne. Granted, that decision meant nothing in the grand scheme of things, but it at least provides hope to any opponent that will now lace 'em up against the 'Cuse. Then again, the Orange sport the league's largest scoring margin this season at plus-15.3 ppg, thanks to guys like All- Big East First-Team member Wes Johnson, who was responsible for 15.7 ppg and placed fifth in the league with his 8.5 rpg. All-Big East Second-Team selection Andy Rautins was responsible for 11.6 ppg and a team-best 149 assists, but perhaps his biggest attribute is his defense, which has generated 64 steals and countless frustrated opponents.
The Pittsburgh Panthers (24-7, 13-5) survived several bumps in the road during one stretch of league play when they fell in four of five games in late January, but the team closed out with three straight wins and eight in the last nine to represent one of the hottest teams in the conference and earn the No. 2 seed in this tournament as a result. Surprisingly, only sophomore guard Ashton Gibbs earned all-conference recognition with his inclusion on the Second Team after leading the program in scoring (16.2 ppg) and shooting both 40.4 percent from three-point range and 89 percent at the free-throw line in 2009-10. Brad Wanamaker has proven himself to be a scorer (12.0 ppg), rebounder (5.7 rpg) and playmaker (146 assists), and deserved a spot on one of the league's all-conference teams for his efforts. A fixture in the tournament title game in recent years, the Panthers have played in seven of the last nine championship bouts, but only once (2003) have they taken home the crown during that stretch.
West Virginia (24-6, 13-5) opened the campaign with 11 straight wins, but it took a thrilling 68-66 overtime win on the road in Philadelphia against Villanova this past weekend to earn the squad the third seed in the tournament. Senior forward Da'Sean Butler had countless critical plays throughout the regular season and because of that, along with his 17.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and team-leading 99 assists, he was named to the All-Big East First Team. Kevin Jones (13.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg) and Devin Ebanks (12.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg) gave the squad that strength and tenacity that it needed on the inside and because of all three of those performers the Mountaineers produced one of the most well-rounded rebounding efforts in the conference, holding an advantage of almost seven boards per game over the competition. Surprisingly, WVU has a record of just 9-13 in this event and is one of seven current members that has never won the tournament title.
Scoring a league-leading 82.8 ppg, the fourth-seeded Villanova Wildcats (24-6. 13-5) appeared to be the team to beat in the conference early on, but in the final weeks of the regular season the squad showed numerous flaws and came back to the rest of the pack. Senior guard Scott Reynolds, the lone unanimous decision for All-Big East First Team, attacked league opponents with 42 percent shooting behind the three-point line and 19.9 ppg, but he'll need to get help from players in the paint if the Wildcats are going to claim their first tournament title since 1995. Corey Fisher (13.6 ppg) and Antonio Pena (10.8 ppg, 7.4 rpg) are fine complementary players, but smart defenses know that Reynolds in the one who will be calling the shots and controlling the action most of the time.
The second tier of schools in the tournament, those that won't hit the hardwood until Wednesday in the Big Apple, begins with surprising No. 5 seed Marquette. The Golden Eagles (20-10, 11-7) lost to lowly DePaul early in the Big East schedule and played in no less than four overtime games in the last five contests of the regular season, which is why the squad's appearance in this spot is so stunning. Senior forward Lazar Hayward is a solid performer inside for Marquette with his 18.0 ppg and 7.8 rpg, but one cannot forget about Jimmy Butler who has generated 15.2 ppg and 6.5 rpg of his own, all while shooting 53.8 percent from the field. Then again, offense is not always the hot topic for the Golden Eagles, more like keeping up a stout defense that was second in the league this year with just 63.6 ppg allowed. Then again, with the offense humming along so well for much of the season, Marquette also enjoys the second-best scoring margin in the league at plus-10.2 ppg.
With all the distractions of head coach Rick Pitino's life outside of basketball getting all the press before the season began, not to mention the rumors of him possibly leaving for the NBA once again, people forget to take into consideration what the Louisville Cardinals are capable of doing on the court. Louisville (20-11, 11-7) arrives in New York City as the sixth seed, even though the team lacked consistency in conference play. What gives the group credibility are the two wins over Syracuse this season, the most recent of those coming on Saturday afternoon in the final game played at famed Freedom Hall. Seeing as how someone like Kyle Kuric, a player who is now scoring just 4.1 ppg, wrote himself into UofL lore on Saturday by coming off the bench and single-handedly leading the Cards to the win over the Orange with his 22 points in the second half, is an indication of how anything is possible at any stage of this event. An all-conference performer this year, Samardo Samuels led the group in both scoring (15.4 ppg) and rebounding (7.1 rpg), while Edgar Sosa (12.8 ppg, 142 assists) tried to balance out some inconsistent play from time to time. An encouraging note for the program is that it ranks second in the league in three-point baskets made with eight per game.
Nearly an afterthought when projecting which teams might be making it to the NCAA Tournament, seventh-seeded Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8) has come on strong of late and doing it without three-time All-Big East First-Team selection Luke Harangody who has been watching from the sidelines the last few weeks after suffering a deep bone bruise on his right knee. Harangody, the only player in Big East history to finish his career with averages of better than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game, also finished third in conference regular-season play all-time with 1,329 points and second on the glass in such meetings with 662 boards. Again, it is not so much that the Fighting Irish are in this position, its the fact that they have made it to this stage by winning four straight to close out the regular season without the help of their star player. However, that's not to say that the Irish don't have a budding star in their midst right now, because junior forward Tim Abromaitis made the All-Big East Honorable Mention list after placing second on the team with his 17.2 ppg. Also boding well for the group is that it plays true team basketball in every sense of the word, placing second in the league in assists per game with 17.2 per outing.
Georgetown, the team that has the most conference tournament titles with seven, winning most recently in 2007, slipped up numerous times down the stretch and dropped all the way down to the eighth seed as a result. Off the court, the Hoyas (20-9, 10-8) were stunned to find out that All-Big East Second-Team member Austin Freeman was diagnosed with Diabetes barely a week ago, but he returned to action on Saturday under a physician's watchful eye and delivered a game-high 24 points in the win over Cincinnati at home. Obviously, Freeman's health is paramount and because of his condition he will be having his minutes monitored and that could spell trouble for the program if his rhythm is disrupted. However, Georgetown is not a one-trick pony because the cast in the nation's capital also includes All-Big East First-Team selection Greg Monroe, who not only averaged almost a double-double with his 16.0 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest, but was also second on the unit with 103 assists.
Now that all the big-name schools have been scrutinized, its time to take a look at the teams that will be taking part in the first round of the tournament on Tuesday afternoon, beginning with 16th-seeded DePaul and ninth- seeded South Florida. The Blue Demons (8-22, 1-17) picked up some early wins this season against weak opponents, at least by Big East standards, but then fell apart and as a result, dismissed head coach Jerry Wainwright in the midst of the all the turmoil. DePaul was last in the league in scoring at 61.4 ppg and was one of only two teams with a negative scoring margin on the campaign (minus-5.8 ppg). The team managed to take St. John's to triple-overtime in the regular-season finale last Friday, but still the 90-82 setback became just another piece in the team's current 12-game slide.
As for the Bulls (19-11, 9-9), they opened conference play with four straight losses and never fully recovered, even though at one point they posted back- to-back victories against both Pittsburgh and Georgetown. Any other year, beating UConn in the final game of the regular season would be a huge feat, but this time around it did little more than extend USF's current win streak to three games. Dominique Jones muscled his way onto the All-Big East First Team by averaging 21.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg and handing out 110 assists, but there's still no getting around the fact that South Florida is second-to-last in the league in three-point shooting at just 29.3 percent. Add to that the squad's mere 12.2 apg, second-fewest in the league ahead of only DePaul, and even if the Bulls get out of the first round, they won't likely go much further.
And the winner of the most enigmatic team this season goes to the UConn Huskies, the 12th seed in a tournament that it has won a total of six times previously. A program that is generally one of the most feared in the Big East, UConn (17-14, 7-11) may still be such an entity only because the competition, in this case 13th-seeded St. John's, has absolutely no idea what to expect. Head coach Jim Calhoun, who had to leave the team for several games for health reasons, after one game stated that he had never been so disappointed in his team's performance and effort. Whether that was meant to motivate the squad or not, the fact remains that the Huskies could easily miss out on the NCAA Tournament, a rarity for sure, but a reality nonetheless. Guards Jerome Dyson and Kemba Walker both made it onto the All-Big East Third Team as they averaged 17.7 and 14.9 ppg, respectively, and even though UConn again led the conference in blocked shots per game (7.8), those interior players are far less intimidating than their predecessors.
The fact that the Red Storm (16-14, 6-12), a team that is trying to get back to the title game for the first time since 2000 when it defeated UConn, had to go to triple-overtime in the final game against DePaul, is not a good sign for a squad that was thought to be on the rise. St. John's placed second from the bottom in scoring this season with 67.4 ppg, mostly because the group shot just 65 percent at the free-throw line and was 15th in the league in field goal shooting at 42.2 percent. DJ Kennedy is the top scorer for the group with 15.3 ppg and he is also first in both rebounding (6.2 rpg) and assists (91), but with the news that Dwight Hardy (10.5 ppg) is questionable for this tourney due to a sprained left knee, that means that someone, anyone will have to step up and fill in the gap.
Also clashing in the first round on Tuesday evening will be 15th-seeded Providence (4-14, 12-18) and 10th-seeded Seton Hall (18-11, 9-9). The Friars, who have been living off the promise stemming from their first and only conference tournament crown back in 1994, are actually the second-highest scoring team in the conference right now at 81.6 ppg, but that doesn't mean much when the group gives up a staggering 81.3 ppg and is considered one of the weakest defensive teams in the nation. PC comes into this event riding a 10-game losing streak. Were it not for an 81-66 win over UConn back in late January, a victory that in any other season would have really meant something, the Friars would be in even more dire straits. Jamine Peterson gives the squad hope with his 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, although his mere 53.9 percent shooting at the free-throw line and an average of barely one assist per game means the sophomore still has quite a bit of development ahead of him.
The Pirates cleaned up during the non-conference schedule with nine wins in 11 tries, losing only to Temple (now nationally ranked) and Virginia Tech (103-94) in overtime. The Hall finished strong with back-to-back wins and six in the last eight outings, although only the three-point victory over Notre Dame at home carries much weight at this point. An All-Big East Conference Second-Team choice this season, Jeremy Hazell finished third in scoring with 21.2 ppg and came within three of nailing 100 triples during the regular season. However, after Hazell there are few standout performers, rather a cast of complementary players who have stuck together in order to generate 80.3 ppg in order to rank fourth in the conference. Unfortunately, an unsteady defense has permitted opponents to tally 74.2 ppg this season. And when those foes miss the mark, rebounds are plentiful due to the fact that Seton Hall ranks last in the conference in rebounding defense with a staggering 39.4 boards per game surrendered.
Last, but not least, is the matchup between 14th-seeded Rutgers and 11th- seeded Cincinnati in the nightcap on Tuesday night. History has not been kind to the Bearcats in this event because the squad has yet to post a single win in three tries thus far. Cincinnati (16-14, 7-11) has just one win away from home since the first week of January and that came at UConn, which again is not all that impressive given the Jekyll-and-Hyde persona of the Huskies. The roster has several strong players in Lance Stephenson (12.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Deonta Vaughn (11.2 ppg, 106 assists), but none that can necessarily put the team on his back and carry it to new heights. It also doesn't help that the Bearcats are ranked second-to-last in the league in free-throw shooting at just 61.6 percent.
The Scarlet Knights (15-16, 5-13) leaned heavily on Dane Miller (9.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) this season, a unanimous choice for the Big East All-Rookie Team, but to expect him to be able to withstand the pressures of playing in the World's Most Famous Arena is asking far too much. The loss of Gregory Echenique, who had been a central figure in the team's interior, means Mike Rosario will continue to shoulder most of the load. Rosario leads the team in scoring with 16.4 ppg, but that shouldn't come as a surprise given that he attempted more shots in just league games than all of his teammates, except Jonathan Mitchell, had in all 31 contests this season. Unfortunately, Rosario made good on just 37.6 percent of those attempts and without much of a presence in the paint, Rutgers was one of only three teams in the Big East with a negative rebounding margin (-2.5 per game).
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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