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02/03/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - To most NBA fans, Miami is the big time.
That's what happens when LeBron James and Chris Bosh decide to join Dwyane Wade on a "superteam" that plays on the shores of Biscayne Bay and the shadow of South Beach.
But Miami, at least in the real world, isn't as "big time" as you might imagine. According to the Nielsen Company, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale television market is only the 16th largest in the country, one spot ahead of Denver and well behind places like Houston and Detroit, never mind New York, LA and Chicago.
Meanwhile Forbes just labeled Miami as the "most miserable city" in all of America, citing the housing crisis that has devastated the city with 47 percent of homeowners sitting on underwater mortgages. I'm not sure that measuring stick is worthy of Scientific America but foreclosures, according to Forbes, have been rampant with 364,000 properties in the area entering the process since 2008.
To outsiders that only think about the glitz and glamour of Miami Beach or still can picture Don Johnson and Philip Michael Thomas screaming across the bay in a speedboat, that's probably a surprise.
Which got me thinking, maybe the city's basketball team has some smoke and mirrors to it also.
When Miami raced out to a 5-0 start this season one national observer made the ridiculous comment that "this team might win 60" in the lockout-shortened 66- game season. Math is about to prove that pundit a liar unless LeBron and Company rattle off 43 straight to end the season.
If you take a step back and look at things objectively, even after an impressive 99-79 win against upstart Philadelphia, you'll see the Heat for what they really are, a very good team with three great individual players that struggle to play together at times.
Listening to Erik Spoelstra before the game, I couldn't help but be reminded of Lou Holtz, the ex-Notre Dame coach that would talk up every team he was playing whether it was No. 1 Miami or the Little Sisters of the Poor.
"They have as many athletes as we do," the Heat coach said when talking about the Sixers, "maybe more."
In truth, Miami is a horrible matchup problem for the Sixers and has now beaten them nine straight times. While Philadelphia does have a lot of athletes, they simply don't have the skill and perhaps more importantly the length of Miami's big three, making this an untenable matchup for the 76ers.
In fact, if styles make fights -- the Sixers are Marvis Frazier to the Heat's Mike Tyson. Philly lost by 20 points tonight after losing by 21 at Miami on Jan. 21. The team's other five losses are by a combined 24 points.
In the end, Miami probably does deserve its spot as the favorite to win an NBA title. But to call that a foregone conclusion or expect some kind of dynasty in South Florida is more than a stretch.
The Heat certainly have the game's best individual player in James, who took over things tonight late in the third quarter and finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists, but as great as "The King" is, we're nine years into his career and it's time to admit he's never going to have the killer instinct of a big-time closer like a Michael Jordan or Larry Bird.
"I've watched him play without Dwyane Wade and he's a totally different player," Charles Barkley, a guy who knows a thing or two about being a superstar, said when talking about James. "I'm going to challenge him to play like that all the time. He's the best player in the world but for some reason, when Dwyane is on the court, he takes a back seat."
Wade, remains the best "Robin" in today's NBA but his reckless style has already taken a toll and the nagging injuries seem to pop up with greater regularity each and every season. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh has upped his game during his sophomore season in Miami but he's still not the type of intimidating force you need at the defensive end for a team with no true center.
After "Miami Thrice" the talent on Spoelstra's club drops off the table.
"The Heat are not that deep of a team," former NBA GM Steve Kerr recently said, "but the ability of LeBron and Wade to take over games on their own allows Miami to offset various loses throughout the lineup."
It's hard to argue with Kerr. Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers have developed into nice NBA role players that bring young legs and energy to the dance but ask yourself how many other NBA could afford to start them?
Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem add veteran leadership and toughness but both players have seen their better days, while Mike Miller is an excellent pure shooter and a key cog as a weak-side threat off the double team but he's also as one-dimensional as they come and Pat Riley gave serious thoughts to amnestying him.
The rest of Riley's roster is filled with players that could just as easily be featured in a D-League media guide with the possible exception of rookie guard Norris Cole, who has flashed an upside with impressive quickness.
"When you have guys that can dominate the game like those three (James, Wade and Bosh) can it doesn't allow other players to get into the flow of the game," former player and current analyst Greg Anthony said. "It's important that they figure out balance."
It's not like this is the first time three great players have toiled together. Magic had Kareem and James Worthy for a good part of his run in Hollywood but there was still room for borderline stars like Norm Nixon, Byron Scott and Michael Cooper.
Bird had Kevin McHale and Dennis Johnson among others and still worked in Robert Parish and Cornbread Maxwell when he was winning titles in Beantown.
The last championship team here in Philly was loaded with Moses Malone, Julius Erving and Andrew Toney along with borderline Hall of Famers Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones.
Keep it closer to this generation and understand San Antonio has three future Hall of Famers in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili that all fit like a glove around solid role players.
"When you watch Miami, they play with arrogance," Anthony continued. "They feel like they can turn it on and off like a light switch and win a game whenever they want. That lack of intensity is one of the reasons why, at times, they struggle."
On Friday, they were able to turn it on. With the game deadlocked at 61 late in the third quarter, Thaddeus Young blew a bunny at the basket and James decided that it was time to take over. First he drilled a 20-foot step back jumper and followed that with a man's offensive rebound and a finger roll to end the third quarter scoring
Less than nine minutes later Philadelphia was down by 23 and looking for the locomotive that just ran them down.
You saw that arrogance bite the Heat, however, 48 hours earlier in Milwaukee when Miami raced out to a 40-23 lead after the opening 12 minutes. James made 8-of-9 shots from the floor in the first quarter of that one, including going 3-for-3 from beyond the arc as the Heat shot 82.4 percent in the opening frame and made all five of their three-pointers.
Satiated, the Heat took their foot off the gas and Brandon Jennings came back to bite them. In fact, it got so bad that Miami didn't get any closer than eight points over the final 4 1/2 minutes of regulation.
The Heat are a good, at times great team, but they're also a flawed bunch that leaves the door ajar for a host of other NBA contenders.
Friday they were at the best with LeBron running the show next to Wade with Bosh alongside Miller and Haslem up front.
"It's been a long time coming." James said when talking about that lineup. "We've played that lineup a few times in the postseason last year but it wasn't healthy. It's great to have that lineup out there now that we're healthy, and me and D-Wade are able to handle the ball.
"That's what it's about, just camaraderie and teamwork."
If only it were about that every night.
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Lawrie leads by one in windy Qatar >>
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In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors. And it's okay to mutter something obscene when the league pretends gambling doesn't help drive TV ratings and fan interest and put money in owners' pockets. But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal. The Bears should put an orange "C" on every deck of cards dealt at Harrah's in Joliet; the Eagles should slap their logo on roulette wheels at the Borgata in Atlantic City; the Dolphins should hold training camp at the El San Juan in Puerto Rico.
Seriously.
The NFL's problem, when it comes to the gambling world, isn't hypocrisy, it's worse: The bosses lack vision. That's why the league is picking unwinnable fights in Delaware and taking pot shots from critics after making smart sponsorship deals. Roger Goodell and his gang are acting and thinking locally rather than globally, which is rare for them, especially compared to their professional (and amateur) counterparts.
The NBA held its All Star game in Las Vegas and David Stern's kingdom didn't crumble (although the town did bring plenty of players to their knees.) I'd say it's 6 to 5 and pick 'em that Lebron will make a road swing through Sin City before his career is over.
Even the NCAA College Football Betting is more progressive on this issue than the NFL. Several years ago Rachel Newman Baker, college sports' gambling czar, opened a dialogue with Vegas bookmakers to learn about how they do business. She's visited Nevada sports books, studied their operations and listened to how they regulate action. Now she knows she can expect a call from bookmakers, who lose money when sports are fixed, if they think something sketchy is going on in NCAA games. She's not in favor of sports betting, but, as she once told me, "I know it's not going away, either."
The NFL can't seem to accept that. And until it can find peace with the idea, it'll get flack, even when it's right.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts MasterCard needs.
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