Can Hornaday Jr. keep the momentum going at Talladega?

Autoracing Betting Lines

10/20/2011 - Talladega, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date: Saturday, October 22. Race: Coca-Cola 250. Site: Talladega Superspeedway. Track: 2.66-mile oval. Start time: 4:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 94. Miles: 250.04. 2010 winner: Kyle Busch. Television: Speed. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.

After winning the last two races, Ron Hornaday Jr. is right back in contention for the Camping World Truck Series championship.

What a remarkable comeback the 53-year-old Hornaday has made in the past couple of months. Following his 24th-place finish in August at Bristol, Hornaday trailed then-leader Johnny Sauter by 69 points.

Hornaday, a record four-time series champion, cut his 42-point deficit in half after taking the checkered flag at Las Vegas for the first time in his career this past Saturday. Leader Austin Dillon and James Buescher, who ranked second in points heading into Las Vegas, crashed at separate times during the race.

With four races to go, Dillon holds just a five-point lead over Sauter and a seven-point advantage over Buescher. Hornaday is 21 down, while Timothy Peters trails by 25.

The series moves on to Talladega Superspeedway, where Hornaday has yet to win.

"With four races to go, Talladega is a track where we will just have to hold our breath all weekend and hope we don't get caught in the big one," he said. "We are in the midst of this championship battle and would really like to make it out of Talladega with momentum."

This will be the third race in a row that Hornaday drives the No.2 Chevrolet for Kevin Harvick Inc. Team owners Kevin and DeLana Harvick moved Hornaday from the No.33 to the No.2, since that truck is presently leading in the series' owner point standings. Crew chief Bruce Cook will remain with Hornaday at least for Talladega.

Cale Gale drove KHI's No.33 at Las Vegas, but Nationwide Series regular Mike Wallace is taking over driving duties this weekend.

"I am very excited about the chance to race for KHI, especially when I'm going to be racing a truck that I know has an opportunity to win the race," Wallace said. "I've won at Talladega before in the ARCA Series, and I'm excited to have the opportunity to win again. Hornaday is back in the run for another championship, so I think we'll be able to work together and help him along as well and hopefully accomplish a sweep for KHI this weekend."

Kyle Busch is the only Sprint Cup Series regular competing in this race. Busch has won the truck event at Talladega the previous two seasons. Last year, he nipped Aric Almirola at the finish line by only 0.002 seconds, making it the closest finish in series history.

Forty-one teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Coca-Cola 250.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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